Climate variability and change in the drylands of Western North America

We argue that it is important to expand the consideration of climate in the context of provision of ecosystem services in drylands. In addition to climate change, it is necessary to include climate variability on timescales relevant to human and ecological considerations, namely interannual to decadal and multidecadal. The period of global instrumental record (about a century and a half long at the very most) is neither an adequate nor an unbiased sample of the range and character of natural climate variability that might be expected with the climate system configured as it is now. We base this on evidence from W. N. America, where there has recently been a major multi-year drought, of a scale and intensity that has occurred several times in the last 2000 years, and on attempts to provide explanations of these phenomena based on physical climatology. Ensembles of runs of forced climate system models suggest the next 50 years will bring much more extensive and intense drought in the continental interior of North America. The trajectory followed by the supply of ecosystem services will be contingent not only on the genotypes available and the antecedent soil, economic and social conditions but also on climate variability and change. The critical features of climate on which patterns of plant growth and water supply depend may vary sharply during and between human generations, resulting in very different experiences and hence, expectations.     

Simulations of the impact of orbital forcing and ocean on the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.     

Ocean temperature climate off North‐East New Zealand

The ocean temperature field off the north‐east coast of New Zealand is studied to quantify the annual cycle and reveal the intra‐ and inter‐annual variability. The data used are repeat expendable bathythermograph (XBT) sections between Auckland and either Suva or Honolulu which have been collected quarterly since 1986. These sections give temperature measurements between the surface and 800 m and Auckland and 30°S from 1986 to August 1999. The mean and annual cycle are compared with those from the NOAA World Ocean Atlas (WOA98). The results are similar; however WOA98 lacks the horizontal resolution to fully discern the East Auckland Current and North Cape Eddy, while the XBT analysis lacks the temporal resolution to discern higher frequency intra‐annual signals. The temperature variability in the mixed layer is dominated by the annual cycle, which accounts for 80–90% of the variance. The amplitude of the annual cycle diminishes rapidly with depth, from 2.8°C at the surface, to c. 0.1°C at 180 m. The phase of the annual cycle is retarded with depth, with peak temperatures occurring in February at the surface and in June/July at 180 m. Removing the annual cycle from the time series reveals the more subtle inter‐ and intra‐annual variability. This variability is of the order of 1°C in the upper 50 m, decreasing to 0.3°C at 400–500 m. The surface layer was cold between 1991 and 1994 (c. 0.7°C cooler than average), and 0.7°C warmer than average in 1999. The deeper ocean shows a different signal, being up to 0.3°C cooler in 1990–92, 0.3°C warmer in 1998, and c. 0.2°C warmer than average in 1999. The inter‐annual mixed layer variability is highly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and also with inter‐annual terrestrial air temperature and wind measurements from northern New Zealand. In contrast, at higher intra‐annual frequencies, the mixed layer variability is not correlated with air and wind measurements. At these higher frequencies, the air temperature is better correlated with the sea surface temperature (SST) than with the bulk mixed layer temperature.     

Variability in trap catches for an American lobster,Homarus americanus,spring fishery

At‐sea sampling is a common approach used by fisheries scientists to assess changes in fished populations. Traditional sampling programmes focus on short intensive sampling periods by fisheries personnel, although there has been a move to increase temporal sampling frequency within a fishing season by using harvesters. To determine the suitability of these two options, we compared the precision of estimates obtained for the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada. The sampling variance estimation for the mean catch‐per‐unit‐effort (CPUE) was based on a three‐stage sampling design with days as the primary unit, and buoy and trap as secondary and third stage units, respectively. Using the estimated variance components to predict and compare the variance of the mean CPUE for different at‐sea sampling designs, we show that it would be more efficient to sample a few traps (at least 3) every day for the entire fishing season than the traditional at‐sea sampling of the entire fishing gear twice or three times in a season by scientific personnel. Designing a harvester‐based at‐sea sampling programme could be an efficient approach for reducing costs while gathering essential fishery data, improving dialogue between the industry and scientists, and increasing harvesters’ participation in managing the resource.     

Trophic ecology of black scabbardfish,Aphanopus carbo in the NE Atlantic—Assessment through stomach content and stable isotope analyses

The black scabbardfish is a deep water species of high commercial interest in the NE Atlantic. Specimens were collected from commercial trawls to the west of the British Isles and from longliners operating near Madeira between September 2008 and May 2010. Stomach content analysis was confined to samples from the northern area, because of a high number of empty stomachs from Madeira. Stable isotope analyses identified that black scabbardfish feeds on species with epipelagic and benthopelagic affinities. For the west of British Isles, the δN values were significantly different between seasons suggesting a change in the diet throughout the year. Black scabbardfish have higher δN and δC values compared with other co-occurring benthopelagic feeders and lower nitrogen values than the true benthic predators and/or scavengers. Comparison with stable isotope analysis in samples from Madeira indicated that black scabbardfish feed at a similar trophic level and has the same trophic niche width in both areas, assuming similar baseline isotope compositions. The diet in the northern area comprised fish (68% N), crustaceans (22% N) and cephalopods (15% N) with blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) constituting 40% of the prey. Seasonal shift in diet was observed, with a predominance of blue whiting (70%) in the first quarter of the year, shifting to a more diverse diet in the remainder of the year. These results indicate that the diet of black scabbardfish is closely linked with the seasonal migration of blue whiting and that they likely select prey in proportion to availability. This study demonstrates that the combined used of both methods can elucidate the trophic ecology of black scabbardfish, in situations where conventional methods alone provide insufficient data.     

Rossby波模型对西北太平洋海表面高度年际变异的可预测性研究

根据海洋Rossby波的西传特性, 使用一阶斜压Rossby波模型对北太平洋海表面高度的年际变异进行了回报和预测研究。回报结果表明, Rossby 波模型能够较好地模拟北太平洋海表面高度的年际变异。尤其是黑潮延伸区的下游, 模拟结果与卫星观测的相关系数达到0.8以上。预测结果表明, Rossby 波模型在两个纬向分布的海域有显著的预报能力, 分别位于高纬度中部和副热带环流西部。前者可提前5—6年, 后者可提前2—4年。此外, 重点开展了Rossby波模型在西北太平洋的预报能力研究。结果表明, Rossby波模型对中国的边缘海有着很好的预测能力, 包括南海北部、台湾以东和东海黑潮海域, 分别在提前32、40和52个月时能取得最佳的预测效果。     

Studying Indian ocean typical dynamical phenomena using TOPEX observations

TOPEX altimeter data of 1993 have been analyzed to study the following three types of oceanographic phenomena in the Indian Ocean: (1) sea level variability of the Indian Ocean (20⁼S to 25⁼N. 40⁼E to 100⁼E): (2) sea surface height signals of the Somali eddy; and (3) sea surface slope variations of the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) spanning 5⁼S to 5⁼N and 45⁼E to 95⁼E. Root‐mean‐square sea level variability revealed the presence of Rossby waves in the southern Indian Ocean. Fast Fourier technique analysis of a few passes near the Somali region is used to study the formation and dissipation of an anticyclonic eddy.     

Influence of sample size on ecological status assessment using marine benthic invertebrate‐based indices

Routine monitoring of the quality status of water bodies demands the best cost‐benefit relation and sample‐size reduction is therefore welcomed. However, great caution is needed because such reduction affects the accuracy and variation of the results. In the present study we tested the influence of sample size (number of replicate samples) on reference condition values and within‐sample ecological quality ratio (EQR) variability of six commonly used ecological indices (taxa richness, Shannon–Wiener diversity, AMBI, Medocc index, Bentix and M‐AMBI). Analysis of soft‐bottom benthic invertebrate data from Slovenian coastal waters showed that sample size influenced the reference condition values of richness/diversity indices (taxa richness and Shannon–Wiener diversity) but not of the sensitivity/tolerance indices (AMBI, Medocc index, Bentix). Increased sample size decreased the within‐sample EQR variability and, concomitantly, increased the accuracy of site ecological status classification for all indices. The size of EQR variability differed depending on the index used. EQR variability of M‐AMBI, an index composed of metrics with different within‐sample EQR variability, was statistically the same as that of the metric with the lowest within‐sample EQR variability. Whether this is a common principle for multimetric indices remains to be confirmed. Based on these results, the use of at least three replicates is suggested to obtain reliable measures of reference condition and EQR for the assessment of ecological status. This level of replication is particularly necessary in areas with high diversity and environmental patchiness, and when richness/diversity measures and indices that include these measures are used.     

北太平洋西边界流的低频变化特征

基于日本气象厅长时间序列的温、盐度再分析资料,利用动力计算方法分析了北太平洋西边界的北赤道流及其下游黑潮和棉兰老流流量的年际和年代际变化,并探讨了北赤道流变化的可能原因。结果表明,北赤道流和黑潮具有比较一致的年际和年代际变化,均在1976年前后发生了一次气候跃变,之后有长期偏强的趋势,而棉兰老流的年际和年代际变化则有所不同。特别是,北赤道流1976年之后增加的流量似乎大多进入黑潮,而流入棉兰老流的流量则减少。进一步的分析还表明,西传的Rossby波和棉兰老冷涡的变动可能对北赤道流的年际变化有重要影响。     

南海北部海域叶绿素a浓度时空特征遥感分析

利用2007-2010年MODIS的L2级叶绿素a浓度产品作为数据基础, 对叶绿素a浓度年平均和月平均数据进行分级分区处理, 研究南海北部海域叶绿素a浓度时空分布特征及其与海洋环境因素的关系。初步研究结果表明:2007-2010年在南海北部海域叶绿素a浓度的高值区(>5.0 mg/m3)主要分布在广东省沿岸河流的入海口, 分布范围在夏季最大, 在春秋次之, 在冬季最小;叶绿素a浓度的次高值区(1.0～5.0 mg/m3)主要分布在海岸线到50 m等深线之间的海域, 分布范围夏冬较大, 能扩展到50 m等深线附近, 而春秋较小, 会退缩到50 m等深线以内;叶绿素a浓度的中值区(0.3～1.0 mg/m3)主要分布在50 m到100 m等深线之间的海域, 时空变化复杂;叶绿素a浓度的低值区(<0.3 mg/m3)主要分布在100 m等深线以外的海域, 其区域平均值夏季最低, 春秋次之, 冬季最高, 同时该区域叶绿素a浓度在春夏秋三季空间分布较均匀, 而冬季受季风和黑潮入侵影响空间分布较为复杂。南海北部海域海表叶绿素a浓度的时空变化特征与季风、沿岸河流、海流、海表温度等海洋环境因素的变化有关。